Explainer: What to know about the upcoming German election

BERLIN, Feb. 22 (Xinhua) -- Germany is set to hold its federal election on Sunday, following the collapse of the "traffic light coalition," a coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The snap election will determine the composition of the new Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, and, ultimately, the next chancellor.

Here is a breakdown of the key aspects of the election.

WHICH PARTY HAS BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING?

The upcoming election features four major parties vying for voter support, namely the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), Scholz's SPD, the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The CDU and CSU union focus on immigration, with its chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz arguing that addressing public concerns over illegal immigration is key to curbing the rise of far-right extremism. Meanwhile, the union also advocates for maintaining Germany's fiscal rule of debt brake or Schuldenbremse, implementing tax cuts, increasing support for Ukraine and boosting defense spending.

The SPD emphasizes tax relief, stricter border controls and infrastructure investments. The Greens share similar priorities with the SPD, including reforming the debt brake, establishing debt-financed investment funds and supporting subsidies for electric vehicles.

The AfD takes a hardline stance on immigration, while also pushing for tax reductions, cutting bureaucratic red tape and calling for an end to sanctions against Russia.

According to the latest poll released on Friday by the Forsa Institute, the CDU and CSU union led with 29 percent support, followed by the AfD with 21 percent and the SPD 15 percent, while the Greens trailed with 13 percent.

The poll suggests that the CDU and CSU union has the strongest chance of winning the election.

HOW IS ELECTION CONDUCTED?

In Germany, voters do not directly elect the chancellor. Instead, they vote for members of parliament, who then select the chancellor.

Germany's electoral system is a mix of direct and proportional representation. Voters cast two ballots -- the first vote elects a local constituency representative and the second supports a political party, determining the proportional distribution of seats in the Bundestag.

The Bundestag has 630 seats under the country's electoral law, with 299 directly elected and the remaining 331 allocated proportionally based on party votes.

After the vote, the ballots will be counted to determine the number of seats each party secures. While it is rare for a party to win an outright majority, coalitions are often formed to ensure a governing majority in the Bundestag.

WHAT IS LYING AHEAD?

After the election, the Bundestag must convene within 30 days and elect a new chancellor, according to the Basic Law, the German constitution.

Traditionally, the candidate from the party with the most votes will be nominated as the federal chancellor.

If the candidate wins with an absolute majority, the president must appoint him or her within seven days. If the candidate fails to achieve this after three rounds of voting, the president must either make the appointment or dissolve the Bundestag, prompting new elections within 60 days. The outgoing government will remain in office until the new government is formed.

Current polling suggests the CDU and CSU union is expected to lead, which means if it forms a coalition government with other parties, its chancellor candidate, Merz, is expected to become Germany's next federal chancellor.

Given Merz's repeated refusals to cooperate with the AfD, his union is most likely to build a coalition with either the SPD or the Greens, said local media.

However, a coalition between the union and SPD remains possible but strained due to policy disagreements on immigration and economic issues, coupled with Merz's public pledge to overturn some of Scholz's policies, making it harder to form a joint government.

A coalition between the union and the Greens risks internal conflicts and would potentially collapse much the way Scholz's traffic light coalition did.

Experts said Merz's push to tighten immigration policies and court far-right parties has shattered the tacit agreement among Germany's traditional mainstream parties to maintain political stability, diminishing the willingness to defuse heightening tensions, which could overshadow future government formation. ■